Is the Root Cause of Climate Change Fossil Fuels or Livestock? Comparison of Impacts, Projection of Consequences and Recommendations.

By Julie Lei Chu

Citation: Chu, Julie L. (2025). Is the Root Cause of Climate Change Fossil Fuels or Livestock? Comparison of Impacts, Projection of Consequences and Recommendations. Bright Publishing Corporation. ISBN: 979-8-9893586-1-8

Abstract

The lethal impacts of livestock on the environment have not been adequately addressed by the IPCC or world governments, which primarily attribute climate change to fossil fuels. This bias is evident in their past climate policies and in future commitments outlined in Nationally Determined Contributions (UNFCCC, 2024; NDC, 2022). While the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework has established four goals and 23 targets to emphasize the importance of nature (Montreal, 2022), concrete solutions are lacking, and the significant impacts of livestock on ecosystems have been entirely overlooked.

This study investigates whether livestock impacts are the root cause of climate change, highlighting that the IPCC (2022) and existing models rely on officially recorded data representing only 5% of nature’s total CO₂ removal capacity, with 95% considered non-human induced. This is controversial, given that the 75% decline in global biodiversity (UNEP, 2022; Richie, 2020) has diminished CO₂ removal capacity, leading to an imbalance in the Net Zero equation and raising atmospheric CO₂ levels, thereby increasing the risks of a climate crisis.

Although current climate models, including the IPCC’s Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), have faced criticism for their significant uncertainties (IPCC, 2022; Roberson, 2020; Richie, 2021), comprehensive root cause analyses and corresponding action plans are absent. With half of the CO₂ emissions from the past 30 years remaining in the atmosphere—equivalent to 15 years of total emissions (NASA, 2024)—and a 75% decline in nature’s CO₂ absorption capacity (UNFAO, 2024), identifying root causes is crucial for effective climate action.

This study employs a multidisciplinary approach, utilizing 30 years of global data to assess the relative impacts of livestock and fossil fuel emissions through empirical analysis, Time Series Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), cost accounting, and financial forecasting methods. By categorizing key CO₂ contributors identified by the IPCC and integrating data from sources such as NASA (2022), UNFAO (2024), NOAA (2022), and VIMS (2024), this research compares fossil fuel emissions to nature’s CO₂ absorption capacity.

Statistical findings reveal that, in the equation to reach climate targets, the optimal coefficients are one unit of fossil fuel emissions combined with 2.2 units of natural carbon CO₂ removal capacity. The market price of fossil fuel emissions is equal to their estimated external costs, at a ratio of 1:1. In contrast, the market price of livestock production covers only 1/462 of its total external costs. Using the global emissions of 50 GtCO₂ in 2019 as a baseline, the share of fossil fuel emissions decreased from 70-78% to 38%-46%, while the share attributable to livestock increased from 12-18% to 143-166%. When considered proportionally, fossil fuels account for only 22%-24.2% % while livestock’s share increased to 75.8% -78%. These results underscore that livestock is a primary driver of climate change, challenging the prevailing focus on fossil fuels. The actual economic and carbon dioxide burdens of livestock production provide a critical foundation for researchers and policymakers to establish effective climate actions, offering concrete recommendations to enhance nature’s CO₂ absorption capacity while addressing livestock-related emissions.